DAW october 30th 2025, Mains Answer Writting 2026

DAW october 30th 2025, Mains Answer Writting 2026

Question

“Rising Sea Surface Temperatures have transformed tropical cyclones from seasonal phenomena into climate-intensified disasters.” Examine this statement in the light of increase in intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. (250 Words, 15 Marks). 

Model Answer

Approach: Introduction: 

  • Context of rising SSTs and increasing cyclone intensity in Bay of Bengal. 

Body: 

  • Link Between Rising SSTs and Cyclone Intensification 

  • Broader Climate Linkages 

  • Socio-Economic and Ecological Impacts 

  • Mitigation & Adaptive Measures 

  • Way Forward 

Conclusion: 

  • Climate-driven transformation of cyclones → need for resilience, sustainability, and low-carbon coastal adaptation. 

  Introduction:  

  •  Tropical cyclones are intense low-pressure systems forming over warm ocean waters, drawing energy from latent heat released by condensation. Traditionally, they were seasonal (mainly pre- and post-monsoon) and predictable in frequency and path. In recent decades, due to climate change and rising Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), they have become more frequent, intense, and destructive, particularly in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region. 

   Body:  Link Between Rising SSTs and Cyclone Intensification:  

  • Rising SSTs — The Thermal Engine: 

  • Cyclones derive energy from warm ocean waters (>26.5°C). 

  • Studies by IITM Pune and IMD shows that the tropical Indian Ocean experienced an average SST rise of ~1 °C during 1951-2015, at a rate of ~0.15 °C per decade. It also noted Marine Heat Wave (MHW) events in the BoB (94 events between 1982-2018) rising at ~0.5 events per decade in the north BoB. 

  • Higher SSTs release more latent heat, energizing stronger convection and wind speeds. 

  • Rapid Intensification: 

  • Rising SSTs cause explosive deepening of cyclones in short timeframes, reducing preparedness windows. 

  • Example: Cyclone Amphan (2020) intensified from Category-1 to Super Cyclone in just 48 hours with SSTs around 31°C. 

  • The frequency of Very Severe Cyclonic Storms (VSCS) has increased despite a decline in total cyclone numbers. 

  • Heavier Rainfall and Flooding: 

  • Warmer air holds more moisture, leading to intense rainfall and storm surges. 

  • Example: Cyclone Yaas (2021) caused extreme rainfall and flooding in Odisha and West Bengal due to enhanced atmospheric moisture. 

  • This amplifies coastal and inland flooding, turning weather events into humanitarian crises. 

  • Prolonged Duration and Wider Impact: 

  • Sustained oceanic heat allows cyclones to retain strength longer, even after landfall. 

  • Example: Cyclone Mocha (2023) remained extremely severe until landfall over Bangladesh–Myanmar due to prolonged SST heat support. 

  • Some cyclones now travel farther inland, extending their damage radius. 

 Broader Climate Linkages: 

  • Global Warming: 

  • IPCC AR6: Human-induced warming has increased global average temperature by 1.1°C since pre-industrial times. 

  • Oceans absorb over 90% of excess heat, directly influencing SST. 

  • Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling: Positive IOD & La Niña create warm anomalies over the Bay, fuelling storm genesis. 

  • Jet Stream & Monsoon Interaction: Shifts in upper-level winds alter cyclone tracks and persistence. 

 Socio-Economic and Ecological Impacts: 

  • Human Losses: Displacement, loss of livelihood (fishermen, farmers). For example, Cyclone Hudhud (Oct 2014) — “Very Severe” category, landfall near Visakhapatnam (AP), wind ~150-180 km/h (in chart), that caused a death toll of more than 120. 

  • Economic Losses: Damage to ports, power, housing, and agriculture. 

  • Environmental Impact: Salinization of soil, mangrove degradation, biodiversity loss. 

  • Example: Cyclone Amphan (2020) affected ~13 million people in India and Bangladesh. 

 Mitigation & Adaptive Measures: 

  • Policy & Institutional 

  • National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC): Framework for climate adaptation. 

  • National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP): Strengthening coastal embankments, shelters, early warning. 

  • National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC): Promotes resilience in vulnerable coastal communities. 

  • IMD’s Early Warning Systems: Use of satellites and numerical models to improve lead times. 

  • Ecosystem-Based Adaptation 

  • Restoration of mangroves, wetlands, sand dunes as natural buffers. 

  • Blue carbon initiatives to enhance oceanic carbon sequestration. 

  • Community Preparedness 

  • Evacuation drills, resilient housing, cyclone shelters (as in Odisha model). 

  • Insurance mechanisms for coastal livelihoods. 

 Way Forward: 

  • Strengthen Climate Modelling: Integrate SST anomalies into cyclone prediction systems. 

  • Build Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Elevated roads, sea walls, and green belts. 

  • Mainstream Climate Adaptation: Integrate with coastal zone management and urban planning. 

  • Regional Collaboration: Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) for shared forecasting and response systems. 

 Conclusion:  

  • Thus rising Sea Surface Temperatures have transformed tropical cyclones into climate-intensified disasters, particularly in the Bay of Bengal, where warm waters and degraded coastal ecosystems amplify their impact. Strengthening climate-resilient infrastructure, restoring mangrove buffers, enhancing forecasting systems, and pursuing low-carbon development are essential to mitigate these escalating risks.