Q. India is often described as a "Forever rising power rather than a Risen power." Critically examine the structural constraints and emerging...
Question
Q. India is often described as a "Forever rising power rather than a Risen power." Critically examine the structural constraints and emerging opportunities shaping India's quest for major power status (10 marks 150 Words)
Model Answer
Q. India is often described as a "Forever rising power rather than a Risen power." Critically examine the structural constraints and emerging opportunities shaping India's quest for major power status (10 marks 150 Words)
Paper
GS II
Subject
International Relations
Syllabus as Per Notification
Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.
Topic
India's quest for major power status
Approach:
Introduction
Introduce by stating despite remarkable advances, India yet to fully translate its capabilities into enduring major-power status.
Body
Briefly explain the distinction between a "Rising power" and a "Risen power" for the context.
Structural Constraints Shaping India's Quest for Major-Power Status
Geo-economic Fragmentation and Return of Hard-Power Politics, Incomplete Economic and Industrial Transformation, Human Capital, Institutional Capacity and Social Cohesion Deficit, Technological, Defence and Energy Dependence, Limited Influence in Global Governance Architecture.
Emerging Opportunities Shaping India's Quest for Major-Power Status
Multipolarity and India's Strategic Centrality, Digital Public Infrastructure and Technological Leadership, Maritime, Defence and Strategic Autonomy, Leadership in the Global South.
Way Forward
Deepening Economic and Industrial Competitiveness, Investing in Human Capital and Social Modernisation, Strengthening Technology Sovereignty, Leveraging Emerging Global Platforms.
Conclusion
Conclude by stating India must move beyond being merely a strategic power to becoming a "strategic consequence"
Context
Strategic Analyst C. Raja Mohan argues that Indian is forever rising, never arriving in its quest for becoming Great Power.
Introduction
In recent years, India has emerged as one of the world's fastest-growing major economies, a leading voice of the Global South and an influential actor in the Indo-Pacific. However, despite its expanding economic and geopolitical influence, persistent gaps in manufacturing competitiveness, technological self-reliance, human capital and institutional capacity continue to constrain its emergence as a fully realised major power.
Body
The distinction between a "Rising power" and a "Risen power"
A Rising power possesses significant economic, military and strategic potential, whereas a Risen power has successfully converted these strengths into sustained global influence and leadership.
This transformation depends on building Comprehensive National Power (CNP) through economic strength, technological leadership, military capability, human capital, strong institutions, diplomatic influence and soft power.
Comprehensive National Power (CNP) = Economic Strength + Technological Leadership + Military Capability + Human Capital + Institutional Capacity + Diplomatic Influence + Soft Power.
While India has made remarkable strides across many of these dimensions, significant structural bottlenecks continue to constrain its transition from an emerging power to a fully realised major power.
Structural Constraints Shaping India's Quest for Major-Power Status
Geo-economic Fragmentation and Return of Hard-Power Politics
The resurgence of geopolitical rivalry, reflected in Russia–Ukraine conflict, West Asia crises and US-China strategic competition led to Geo-economic fragmentation, with technology, trade and supply chains being weaponised.
Export controls, protectionism and technology concentration in established powers are making the transition to major-power status more difficult for late-industrialising countries like India.
Incomplete Economic and Industrial Transformation
Despite being one of the world's fastest-growing major economies, India's manufacturing sector has not expanded sufficiently to drive large-scale industrialisation and quality employment.
Manufacturing contributes only around 17% of GDP, while limited integration into Global Value Chains (GVCs) constrains export competitiveness and strategic industrial capability.
Human Capital, Institutional Capacity and Social Cohesion Deficit
Persistent challenges like learning outcome deficits, skill mismatch and low female labour-force participation continue to constrain India's demographic advantage.
Democratic resilience, institutional effectiveness, social cohesion, bureaucratic efficiency, judicial reforms and regulatory certainty are essential to sustain long-term national power.
Technological, Defence and Energy Dependence
Despite global leadership in Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), India imports 70–80% of its critical minerals and remains dependent on imported high-end defence technologies, limiting technological and military self-reliance.
India imports around 85% of its crude oil and 50% of its natural gas, exposing it to geopolitical shocks, global price volatility and supply-chain disruptions.
Limited Influence in Global Governance Architecture
India’s growing diplomatic visibility through G20, QUAD, BRICS and SCO, has not kept pace with its growing strategic weight.
Example: Absence of permanent membership in the UN Security Council, Limited voting power in the IMF and World Bank relative to its economic size.
Emerging Opportunities Shaping India's Quest for Major-Power Status
While structural constraints remain significant, the evolving international order presents India with a historic strategic window.
Multipolarity and India's Strategic Centrality
Transition from US-led unipolar to a multipolar world enhanced India's geopolitical significance.
India's policy of strategic autonomy, coupled with deeper engagement through QUAD, I2U2, IMEC and partnerships with middle powers such as Indonesia, Australia, Japan and France strengthen its role in shaping a stable and inclusive Indo-Pacific.
Digital Public Infrastructure and Technological Leadership
India has emerged as a global pioneer in Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) through platforms such as Aadhaar, UPI, DigiLocker, ONDC and Agri-stack
China+1 strategy and initiatives like IndiaAI Mission, National Quantum Mission and India Semiconductor Mission are strengthening India's manufacturing and technological capabilities.
Maritime, Defence and Strategic Autonomy
Defence indigenisation and rising exports strengthen military-industrial capability, while India's strategic location in Indian Ocean secures critical Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs).
Initiatives such as SAGAR, Indo-Pacific partnerships and maritime domain awareness enhance India's regional influence.
Leadership in the Global South
Voice of Global South Summit strengthened India's leadership among developing countries.
India's G20 Presidency secured permanent membership of African Union in G20 and Initiatives such as ISA and CDRI showcase India's capacity to create new multilateral institutions.
Way Forward
To transition from a "Forever Rising Power" to a "Risen Power", India must pursue a multidimensional strategy
Deepening Economic and Industrial Competitiveness
Manufacturing sector reforms, strengthening MSMEs, integrating with Global value chains (GVCs) and promoting high-value exports.
Investing in Human Capital and Social Modernisation
Strengthening foundational education, healthcare, skilling, research ecosystems, women labour-force participation and institutional capacity to fully harness India's demographic dividend.
Strengthening Technology Sovereignty
Expanding domestic capabilities in Semiconductors, AI, Quantum technologies, Cybersecurity and critical minerals through greater public-private collaboration.
Leveraging Emerging Global Platforms
Deepening engagement with G20, QUAD, BRICS, IPEF and the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) while advocating reforms in global institutions such as UNSC to enhance India's role in shaping the emerging multipolar order.
Conclusion
As the Vivekananda International Foundation argues, India is at an "inflection point" where it must move beyond being merely a strategic power to becoming a "strategic consequence", a nation capable of shaping global norms, institutions and outcomes. Therefore, India's emergence as a true major power will depend not on the pace of its economic growth alone, but on its ability to convert demographic strength, technological innovation, institutional resilience and strategic autonomy into comprehensive national power.