Discuss the impact of monsoon variability on India’s food security. What measures can be taken to build climate-resilient agriculture. (15 marks...
Question
Discuss the impact of monsoon variability on India’s food security. What measures can be taken to build climate-resilient agriculture. (15 marks 250 Words)
Model Answer
Discuss the impact of monsoon variability on India’s food security. What measures can be taken to build climate-resilient agriculture. (15 marks 250 Words)
Paper
GS III
Subject
Economic Development
Syllabus as Per Notification
Issues of Buffer Stocks and Food Security
Topic
Climate-Resilient Agriculture
Approach:
Introduction
Introduce with India’s Agriculture dependence on monsoon.
Briefly give the context of Current crisis of rainfall deficiency.
Body
Discuss the Impact of Monsoon Variability on Food Security of India such as
The Collapse of the "Natural Hedge", Crop-Specific Vulnerabilities, Regional Inequality in Food Security and Macro-Economic Consequences.
Explain what measures can be taken to Build Climate-Resilient Agriculture
Technological and Agronomic Innovations, Crop Diversification and Integrated Farming, Efficient Water Management, Soil Health Management and Infrastructure and Institutional Support.
Conclusion
Conclude by highlighting the need for Climate-Resilient Agriculture to realise the goal of Net Zero Agriculture For Viksit Bharat 2047 and achieving SDG-2 (Zero Hunger)
Context
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported a 43% rainfall deficit in June 2026, raising concerns about kharif crop output.
Introduction
India’s agriculture is highly dependent on the southwest monsoon, which provides nearly 70% of annual rainfall. Variability in monsoon patterns, intensified by climate change and El Nino events, directly impacts food security, rural livelihoods, and macroeconomic stability. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already reported a 43% rainfall deficit in June 2026, raising concerns about kharif crop output.
Current Crisis – Widespread Deficiency:
India faces a severe monsoon shortfall, with all-India rainfall 43% below normal. This is a national crisis, 26 of 36 states/UTs report deficits above 20%, and nine exceed 60%.
The IMD projects rainfall at only 90% of the Long Period Average, risking the driest monsoon in a decade.
The monsoon arrived late (June 4), stalled mid-June, and revived only on June 23, worsening stress.
The crisis is compounded by El Nino conditions, as Pacific warming suppresses the monsoon. Its impact is already visible and expected to intensify further in coming months.
Body
Impact of monsoon variability on India’s food security
The Collapse of the "Natural Hedge"
India’s food security traditionally relied on the buffering effect of Kharif (rice) and Rabi (winter) seasons.
In recent years, heatwaves have reduced wheat yields and erratic monsoons have depressed rice output.
Crop-Specific Vulnerabilities
The impact varies significantly across crops, creating a complex risk matrix.
Rice & Wheat: Climate change may raise rice production failure risks by 26% at district level, while heatwaves continue to depress wheat yields.
Pulses & Oilseeds: Highly sensitive to rainfall, a 1% increase boosts pulses by 0.33%, but both deficit and excess rainfall reduce output.
Maize: Responsive to rainfall (1% increase boosts production by 0.16%), but vulnerable to waterlogging and excessive rains.
Regional Inequality in Food Security
Rainfed Areas at Risk: Nearly With 60% of India’s net sown area rainfed, monsoon variability hits hardest.
In 2025 erratic rains devastated Marathwada (Maharashtra) and Bundelkhand (UP/MP), causing crop failures and deepening rural distress.
Vulnerability of Small and Marginal Farmers: With 86% of farmers small/marginal, lacking irrigation buffers, they are most exposed to crop failures.
In the 2025 Bihar floods, smallholders lost maize and paddy, while irrigated farmers in Punjab fared better, deepening rural distress.
Regional Malnutrition Gap: NITI Aayog’s 2025 Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index (MPI) showed Multi-Dimensional poverty is highest in Bihar (33.8%) and Jharkhand (32.2%), directly linked to food insecurity.
Macroeconomic Consequences
The impact is felt throughout the economy.
Persistent Food Inflation: Climate shocks have steadily raised food prices, cereals alone contributed nearly 20% of total inflation after 2022.
Policy Fatigue: Government reliance on supply-side steps (export bans, stock limits) has shown diminishing returns, despite twice as many interventions between 2021–24, food costs stayed high.
Building Climate-Resilient Agriculture
Addressing this challenge requires moving beyond reactive crisis management. The current situation has forced the government to activate contingency plans, but a long-term strategy is critical.
Technological and Agronomic Innovations
Deploying Climate-Resilient Varieties: Under ICAR’s National Agricultural Research System, 2,996 resilient crop varieties (2014–25) were released, supported by practices like direct-seeded rice and zero-till wheat.
ICAR's NICRA Programme: National Innovations on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) assessed 651 districts, identifying 310 as highly vulnerable, with District Contingency Plans prepared for adaptation.
Crop Diversification and Integrated Farming
Rainfed Area Development (RAD): This National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) component promotes Integrated Farming Systems (IFS) by combining crops with horticulture, livestock, and fisheries to boost resilience and farmer income.
Since 2014–15, RAD has covered 8.5 lakh hectares, benefiting 14.35 lakh farmers with an investment of ₹2,119.84 crore.
In FY 2025–26, allocations of ₹343.86 crore trained 96,013 farmers across States/UTs.
Efficient Water Management
Per Drop More Crop (PDMC): Promotes micro-irrigation (drip/sprinkler), which reduces water stress, improves efficiency, and stabilizes yields under erratic rainfall. By conserving water and boosting productivity, PDMC strengthens food security and builds climate-resilient agriculture against monsoon variability.
Since 2015–16, PDMC has covered 109 lakh hectares with ₹26,325 crore central assistance.
Government targets 100 lakh hectares under micro-irrigation (2025–30), requiring 20 lakh hectares annually.
Soil Health Management
Soil Health Card (SHC) Scheme Serves as the main farmer advisory tool. By guiding balanced fertilizer use and reducing misuse, it improves soil fertility, stabilizes yields, and makes farming more resilient to climate shocks.
By February 2026, 25.79 crore cards were issued and a NITI Aayog 2025 evaluation found 68.5% farmers reported improved soil health.
Soil Fertility Maps: The Soil and Land Use Survey of India (SLUSI) has undertaken mapping in 6,954 model villages, completing around 2,023, to provide site-specific nutrient information.
Infrastructure and Institutional Support
Climate-Resilient Villages (CRVs): Under NICRA, 448 CRVs have been set up across 151 vulnerable districts in 28 States/UTs, showcasing adaptive technologies for replication.
Risk Management and Insurance: The Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) offers a financial safety net but needs reforms for faster claim settlement and tech-based yield assessment.
Forecasting and Advisory Services: Schemes like Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) provide 5-day forecasts and dissemination via the Meghdoot app must be strengthened with hyper-local, crop-specific advisories
Conclusion
By the time India celebrates Viksit Bharat 2047, agriculture must transform into a net-zero, climate-resilient system that ensures food security for all. The roadmap should align with SDG-2 (Zero Hunger) by achieving 100% resilient crop coverage, universal micro-irrigation, and soil health restoration. Leveraging digital farming, sustainable practices, and global leadership in millets and pulses, India can secure domestic nutrition needs while emerging as a global hub for sustainable food exports, reconciling growth with ecological balance.