UNEP's 'Limiting Overshoot' Report: Managing the 1.5°C Breach (Environment)
UNEP's 'Limiting Overshoot' Report: Managing the 1.5°C Breach (Environment)
Why In News:
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has projected that the world is likely to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold, highlighting an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway to eventually bring global temperatures down.
Key Findings
Climate overshoot refers to a period in which global warming exceeds a specified temperature threshold before subsequently declining.
1.5°C breach likely: UNEP warns that exceeding the 1.5°C threshold is now unavoidable, with even highly ambitious action potentially leading to a peak warming of around 1.8°C.
Current policies remain inadequate: Under existing policies, the world could experience much higher warming by 2100, highlighting the continued gap between climate commitments and actual implementation.
Overshoot–peak–decline pathway: The report emphasises three objectives—minimise the temperature overshoot, limit the duration of the breach, and bring temperatures back down through rapid emission reductions and carbon dioxide removal.
Risk of irreversible changes: A prolonged overshoot could increase the likelihood of climate tipping points and irreversible losses in ecosystems, including ice sheets and other vulnerable natural systems.
Paris Agreement and the 1.5°C Goal
Adopted: The Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015 under the UNFCCC and aims to strengthen global action against climate change.
Temperature Goal: It seeks to keep the rise in global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.
National Commitments: Countries submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) outlining their climate actions and are expected to update them periodically with greater ambition.
Long-term Goal: The Agreement aims to achieve a balance between greenhouse-gas emissions and removals in the second half of the century, supporting the transition towards net-zero emissions.
Related Institutions and India's Position
UNEP: Headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, it is the UN's principal environmental authority and publishes assessments such as the Emissions Gap Report.
UNFCCC: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted in 1992; the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement were subsequently adopted under its framework.
IPCC: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change independently assesses scientific literature on climate change and does not conduct original research; its assessments provide the scientific basis for international climate policy.
India’s Climate Commitments: India aims for net-zero emissions by 2070, a 45% reduction in GDP emissions intensity by 2030 (from 2005 levels), and 50% of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030.